Before the beginning of the first great war early in the 20th century, it was thought that such a thing could never happen. The system of alliances was too strong and the power of modern mechanized and chemical weaponry was too great. A conflict between great powers would therefore be unthinkable and would thus not be possible.
One Serbian Assassination of a world leader and a vengeful German Kaiser later, it happened. The result was tens of millions of dead people, and world forever traumatized by a senseless and brutal conflict. Since then there have been many more senseless and brutal conflicts, and it looks as though another one might be about ready to pop off in Eastern Europe.
Once again we have a world separating itself into different armed camps, and a disbelieving public that thinks the nuclear, biological and chemical weapons that Russia possesses are so terrifying that no one will dare to stop them if Russian aggression against Ukraine continues.
Vladimir Putin has seen fit to reclaim another chunk of the old Soviet Empire by sending Russian soldiers into the Crimean Peninsula. Mr. Putin's justification, that Russia needed to annex the Crimea to protect the interests of the ethnic Russians living there, is major problem for other world powers though. It allows Russia to intervene in any country where Russian speakers are present. This in turn allows Russia to aggressively expand it's territory in old Soviet Block countries at will.
Naturally this will stoke tensions across the globe should Russia decide that oil producing states on its borders or states that posses other desirable economic or strategic resources are also abusing their native Russian speakers and that the country must intervene to protect them.
Russian forces are now massing on the Ukrainian border. To this biased observer it looks very much like they are readying for another push, possibly to secure a land route to their new Crimean spoils. Estimates range from 30,000 - 100,000, but by all accounts a huge and capable force is at the ready.
Economic and political sanctions have already been put into place against Russia, but they have been ineffective. Russia's military has rebuilt itself with revenues from the country's vast oil reserves, now it's ready to flex its considerable muscles, can anyone stop them? Clearly vladimir Putin's respect for the sovereignty of former Soviet states quickly disappears when a chance to add them back to the Russian Federation arises. Should Western powers move to intervene? Can they? That is a question that only history can answer.
Saturday, March 29, 2014
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